Earth likely to breach warming threshold of 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels

This article was written by Kevin Jiang and was published in the Toronto Star on May 18, 2023.

Human-induced climate change and the natural arrival of weather system El Niño almost guarantees the next five years will be sweltering — and temperatures are expected to shatter global records, according to the United Nations.

A new, dire update from the World Meteorological Organization, a specialized agency of the United Nations, on Wednesday finds we’re stepping into “uncharted territory,” with temperatures likely surpassing 1.5 C of warming by 2027.

El Niño coupled with climate change will “push global temperatures into uncharted territory,” WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said in a release Wednesday. “This will have far-reaching repercussions for health, food security, water management and the environment. We need to be prepared.”

According to the report, there is a 98 per cent chance at least one year in the next five years, and the fiveyear period as a whole, will be the warmest ever recorded. In this time span, there’s a 66 per cent chance temperatures will be 1.5 C warmer than pre-industrial levels for at least one year.

That means we’re on track to breach the long-term warming threshold of 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels set by the 2015 Paris Agreement — at least temporarily.

“This report does not mean that we will permanently exceed the 1.5 C level specified in the Paris Agreement which refers to long-term warming over many years,” Taalas said. “However, WMO is sounding the alarm that we will breach the 1.5 C level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency.”

Case in point, there’s only a 33 per cent chance the five-year temperature mean will exceed the 1.5 C limit, the report states.

The world has been heating up across the board; in January, the WMO found the past eight years to be the warmest ever recorded. Global warming has already wreaked havoc across the globe, contributing to record-breaking heatwaves, the increased prevalence of storms and natural disasters, extreme droughts and more.

Recently, Canada has seen devastating wildfires grow in frequency and intensity, with fire seasons stretching in length. Experts say the rise in forest fires has also contributed to increasing greenhouse gas and air pollution emissions.

The last global temperature record was set in 2016, partly resulting from an especially strong El Niño event. At the time, average temperatures were measured at 0.94 C above pre-industrial levels.

El Niño and its counterpart, La Niña, describe the respective warming and cooling of surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean. The events typically last nine to 12 months and occur roughly every two to seven years.

When El Niño strikes, trade winds falter and the warm waters are pushed back east toward the west coast of the Americas. This may lead to warmer temperatures in general, and generate especially hot and dry conditions in northern Canada.

According to the WMO, El Niño is expected to arrive in the coming months, with an 80 per cent chance of hitting between July and September.