This article wa written by Emma Graney and was published in the Globe & Mail on June 21, 2023.

Clean electricity will become the cornerstone of Canada’s energy future and the use of fossil fuels will drop significantly if the country is to reach its goal of net-zero greenhouse-gas emissions by 2050, according to a new federal analysis.

The report, released Tuesday, is the Canada Energy Regulator’s (CER’s) first long-term outlook modelling net-zero by 2050. It outlines three scenarios: global net-zero, Canada net-zero and the continuation of current measures. But the agency emphasized that the scenarios aren’t predictions about the future or policy recommendations but sketches of Canada’s possible energy future.

“Uncertainty is inherent in all energy modelling exercises,” Gitane De Silva, the CER’s chief executive, wrote in her introduction to the report. “I am sure not everyone will agree with the assumptions we made, nor our findings.”

Nevertheless, Ms. De Silva said the report presents scenarios “that can help Canadians and policy makers see what a net-zero world could look like, visualize the goal, and make informed decisions.”

Canada, the world’s fourth-largest oil producer, is grappling with how to best balance its economic reliance on fossil fuel production with the global goal of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to avoid the worst effects of climate change.

Under the global net-zero scenario, Canada achieves net-zero emissions by 2050 and the rest of the world reduces emissions enough to limit global warming to 1.5 C. The Canada net-zero scenario envisages a future where we hit net-zero by 2050 but other countries move more slowly.

The current measures scenario relies on a model whereby Canada sticks to the emissions-reduction measures in place today – the eventual $170-a-tonne carbon tax by 2030-31, for example, but not an oil-and-gas emissions cap being developed by Ottawa.