This editorial was written and published by the Globe & Mail on August 15, 2023.
Two years ago, Group of Seven countries set a goal to largely eliminate fossil fuels from power generation in the 2030s. Last year, at a meeting in Germany, the G7 sharpened that timeline: “we commit to achieving a fully or predominantly decarbonized power sector by 2035.” Among the top strategies was a plan to remove barriers that “currently hinder or slow down the expansion” of renewable power.
This is the broader political context behind Canada’s domestic goal to mostly squeeze fossil fuels out of power generation by 2035. Some provinces are already close to the goal, with a bounty of hydro power across the country, but three – Alberta, Saskatchewan, Nova Scotia – depend on fossil fuels for the majority of their electricity.
Nova Scotia is working to change – from one-third renewable power currently, to 80 per cent by 2030. Alberta and Saskatchewan are resistant, rejecting Ottawa’s goal of 2035, promising clean power by 2050 – yet not taking immediate and clear steps towards that delayed target.
Last week, the federal government issued its long-awaited clean electricity regulations. They will apply to individual power facilities, rather than the provinces themselves. But because of the reality of electricity generation in Canada, the regulations will not be felt by many Canadians but will have a big impact in a few provinces.
Given this squeeze, Ottawa’s goal of (almost) clean power by 2035 – and the G7’s – offers reasonable flexibility. It’s not no fossil fuels in power by 2035; the regulations are about getting close to zero by 2035. Economists praised the flexibility and suggested more may be necessary.
The draft rules include a set number of hours a power plant running on fossil fuels can operate each year with a loose cap on climate heating emissions, to serve as a backup to the grid or as extra power when demand spikes. Ottawa set the maximum at 450 hours, or about 19 days. That number may have to be upped.
The resistance, led by Alberta, offers no flexibility at all. Worse, they do not offer any sort of alternative plan, save for a vague promise of clean power by 2050.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith is moving in the opposite direction. Earlier this month, Alberta halted new solar and wind power until next winter. Among the worries is reclamation at the end of a project’s lifespan. It’s a good question – but experts in Alberta argue a halt isn’t needed to come up with an answer.
Ms. Smith also declared the proposed regulations to be unconstitutional, citing Section 92 of the Constitution, provincial oversight of electricity, but ignoring Ottawa’s role in environmental matters. The outcome of a court fight isn’t certain but Ottawa did win the carbon-pricing dispute. Also, recall the time when Ottawa regulated electricity to reduce the use of fossil fuels and lower emissions. This month, yes, but also in 2012 under Stephen Harper, who used federal regulations to limit coal power in the provinces.
As Alberta slows renewables, its own climate plan, published in April, advocates fossil fuels. Natural gas, the plan said, will be the main source of electrical power “for many years to come.” There are no specifics about how to clean up its grid, or rules to make it happen. Clean power by 2050, in Alberta’s rendering, is an empty slogan.
In the United States, far more reliant on fossil fuels for power than Canada, federal regulations were tabled in May to get to clean power by 2035. The rules come alongside massive federal subsidies through the Inflation Reduction Act, tallied in some estimates at more than US$1-trillion.
Ottawa wants to use its fiscal heft – and it must – to propel clean power but has been slow to act. One example is carbon capture. A tax credit was first proposed in the 2022 federal budget. It still hasn’t been finalized.
Alberta and Ottawa are set to start talks in a working group on issues including clean power. Such talks make sense. Ottawa has in the past been flexible on various issues with Quebec. Ottawa can be flexible today. Alberta’s Premier has to do more than claim a federal plan is unconstitutional.
The bottom line is factors such as grid reliability and affordable power costs should be paramount. Alberta and other provinces need to stop bickering with Ottawa and start figuring out how to move quickly to the goal of clean power. Ottawa can offer some more leeway, but provinces need to get serious about change.