This article was written by Anthony Alexiou and was published in the Toronto Star on August 31, 2023.

ANTHONY ALEXIOU, A NATIVE OF TORONTO, IS THE FOUNDER AND PRINCIPAL OF THE MINOTAUR GROUP, A GEOPOLITICAL RISK ADVISORY

Afghanistan and Iran came dangerously close to war some weeks ago, but it had nothing to do with political ideologies or ancient rivalries; it had to do with a river and how much water each country is allowed to draw from it.

The waters of the Helmand River are shared by both countries and there was even an agreement drawn up in 1973 enshrining how much water from this river each country gets.

While it’s never been officially ratified, both countries had it figured out, that is until some weeks ago. Droughts and subsequent dams built in Afghanistan have decreased the flow of water into the region, causing shortages and agricultural issues, especially on the Iranian side. This created tensions that boiled over into both sides briefly shooting at each other and while there were some casualties, cooler heads prevailed.

In Somalia, while sitting in a camp for displaced persons just outside of Mogadishu, Nurata Hassan Ebow said “We had to leave because of the drought and the conflict.”

The conflict she’s referring to is the ongoing fighting between what are passing as government forces and the group al-Shabab. She is one of many people who have been displaced by drought, historic flooding and the conflict — a struggle for what are becoming more and more scarce resources.

This has put many parts of Somalia at the edge of famine and, according to Mohamed Abdi, Norwegian Refugee Council’s country director in Somalia, has driven more than one million people from their homes.

As climate change progresses, more of these types of scenarios will play out. Floods and droughts will lead to lands becoming uninhabitable, triggering mass migrations of people, much like we’re seeing in the Horn of Africa.

In other cases, we’ll see countries getting ready to fight not for oil or territory, but for control over water or arable land. These are the conflicts of the future.

The European Commission is seeing this on the horizon. They feel that climate change worsens conflict risks in fragile areas, destructive weather that can harm crop yields exacerbating food insecurity. In the Sahel in western Africa, migrations risk unleashing decades of armed conflict and displacement according to the UN.

The problem isn’t limited to developing or fragile areas of the world. The people that get displaced from western Africa or Somalia or Bangladesh all need to go somewhere and they go to countries that seemingly have the means; Europe, China, the U.S. and other places that might be less affected or simply are perceived as safer.

The stress mass migrations puts on receiving country systems is huge and creates a whole new set of problems. Those that stay behind either suffer or fight over what little is left.

Ahmadou Aly Mbaye and Landre Signe, both fellows at the Brookings Institution in Washington underscore this. In their economic study of the Sahel, the semi-arid region of western and north-central Africa, they found that poverty, instability and communal violence are already on the rise because of poor economic performance and deteriorating climate conditions. For populations there dependent on the natural resources for their livelihood, climate change reinforces long existing rivalries as groups fight over what resources are left.

The European Union is worried about that — spillover effects from climate-driven conflicts. In a draft paper published a few weeks ago, the EU feels that these spillover effects “… can arise through increased demand for aid, the disruption of supply chains or with people fleeing from uninhabitable areas or severe adverse conditions at home, with the potential of internal displacement and increased irregular migration.”

Essentially this is what’s happening in both East and West Africa, and to some degree along the U.S. southern border.

Climate change is not abstract. It’s not just a hot summer in Europe or forest fires in Canada. It’s the destruction of arable land and fights over key resources for life; water and land to grow food. While the West has the capacity to absorb any internal climate issues, Somalia, Niger, Bangladesh and other developing countries do not, and the inevitable conflicts and ensuring migrations will affect us all.