This editorial was written and published by the Toronto Star on September 28, 2023.

Premier Doug Ford’s stunning decision to reverse his government’s Greenbelt plans is a big win for Ontarians who were deeply opposed to the land swap deal. But it is also a big win for the Greenbelt itself: for the 78 species of plants and animals that exist on two million acres of protected farmland, wetlands, forests, rivers and lakes.

It is rare to read good news involving the natural environment in an era of climate change. Ford’s decision to scrap his controversial plan offers a glimmer of such news.

Now to extinguish that glimmer: news of a disturbing report detailing a future amid climate change in Ontario. Just weeks before Ford’s Greenbelt reversal, the provincial government quietly posted a report entitled “Ontario Provincial Climate Change Impact Assessment,” that paints a frightening picture of Ontario in a warming world.

According to the report — originally presented to government officials in January but released publicly in late August — the impacts of climate change on the province may be enormous and enormously detrimental in the coming decades. Increased flooding and drought will likely threaten our food crops, our aquatic ecosystems, as well as jeopardize storm water management.

However, after a summer of stifling temperatures and devastating wildfires in Canada and around the world, few details from the report may alarm Ontarians more than this one: “By the end of the century, Southwest, Central and Eastern Ontario are projected to experience an average of over 60 extreme hot days per year.” That is roughly two months of temperatures averaging above 30 C a year; a reality that could be disastrous for the health of people and the economy.

“Ontario’s general population may be indirectly impacted by climate change through macro level shifts such as economic downturns or losses in major local employment sectors,” the report reads.

“This would have cascading impacts related to the number of people experiencing housing insecurity, and who would therefore be more vulnerable to being exposed to severe weather as a result of potentially being rendered homeless or finding accommodations in poorly equipped shelter, such as housing with inadequate heating or cooling systems.”

The report finds that in the coming years most Ontario businesses will face increased risks due to climate change. Workers won’t be spared either, it said, nothing that the province’s large population of migrants workers who are vulnerable to heat stress and infectious disease due to the nature of their work.

Climate change will negatively impact every corner of the province from health care and infrastructure to food security and homelessness. And yet, there are things the provincial government can do to mitigate some disaster. As the report notes, “the province has the solutions and knowledge to act to lessen and avoid many of the climate risks Ontario’s people and communities are facing.”

One such solution the province says it is pursuing is the improvement of its flood and storm water management. This is welcome news but significantly more must be done if Ontario is to be halfway prepared for what awaits.

The report recommends several risk mitigating measures, among them: fast-tracking the building of green infrastructure, creating (and actually implementing) climate event emergency response plans, strengthening social safety nets and supporting Indigenous-led conservation.

In addition, we call on the provincial government to get real about building affordable housing en masse (and not, it should go without saying, on protected green spaces). Housing isn’t merely a human right; it’s shelter from the increasingly harsh elements.

Ford’s decision on the Greenbelt is significant, given that the ill-considered housing developments would have bulldozed wetlands, woodlands and prime agricultural lands. But as the report lays out, other critical steps are needed to gird the province for the fallout of the warmer planet.

At present, the Greenbelt has been given a reprieve from predatory developers and politicians. Unfortunately, neither it nor Ontario is safe from climate change.