This editorial was written and published by the Globe & Mail on October 19, 2023.

Climate change is a global problem. Canada has a national goal to slash emissions. But it depends a lot on provincial actions – which too often these days is inaction.

The Paris Agreement’s goal to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius depends on countries taking major actions sooner than later. Canada first pledged to cut emissions by 30 per cent by 2030 from 2005 levels. In 2021, as part of the climate treaty’s expectation of escalating ambition, the promise was upped to an emissions cut of at least 40 per cent.

Canada’s emissions in 2022 were 685 megatonnes, according to an unofficial estimate last month from the Canadian Climate Institute think tank. That’s down just 6 per cent from 731 MT in 2005. There’s a long way to go.

Cutting global emissions depends on the actions of individual countries, each with their own motivations. Cutting emissions in Canada faces the same issue. The country is a federation where provinces have considerable say over what takes place within their own borders. Ottawa’s constitutional powers include signing Canada’s name to treaties such as the Paris Agreement and, as was confirmed at the Supreme Court in 2021, the right to put a price on greenhouse gas emissions – even as such treaty powers and carbon pricing bump up against the provinces’ right to develop their resources.

Last week, however, the Supreme Court ruled Ottawa had overstepped its constitutional bounds in the Impact Assessment Act, federal rules to conduct environmental assessments of proposed industrial projects. Ottawa is now busy rewriting one of its signature pieces of legislation. How it all turns out is unclear but as the court reaffirmed provincial rights, the decision put a brighter spotlight on what the provinces are – and are not – doing on climate.

The goal of net zero by 2050 – a quarter century from now – is widely embraced, in concept at least. As scientists make clear, getting there requires specific short-term goals. That’s why the Paris Agreement focuses on 2030. Every year matters: delaying the push to net zero could see more than double the emissions between now and 2050 compared with immediate action.

Yet the provinces are failing to help get Canada closer to its Paris Agreement pledge. The provinces’ promises add up to less than half of Ottawa’s goal for the country, the Climate Institute calculates. Three provinces – Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba – have no interim targets. Others, like Ontario, have maintained the older goal of a 30-per-cent cut by 2030. (Ontario is close, with emissions down 26 per cent. About half of the reductions came from getting off coal power.)

There are leaders, too. Nova Scotia is out in front – with plans to more than halve emissions by 2030 across its economy, one that is still dependent on coal power. The province’s emissions are down 36 per cent since 2005.

Emissions in Alberta are up 9 per cent since 2005, despite the province’s swift move off coal power, an Alberta NDP policy. More recently Premier Danielle Smith of the United Conservative Party has been intransigent about federal plans to further reduce emissions from power generation and the oil and gas industry but has offered little of her own ideas or targets. In fact, Alberta is going backward, as it shut down the booming renewable power business for a lengthy review.

UCP MLAs recently visited Germany, which one described as being in the “vanguard” of the shift to renewable power. Germany aims to cut its overall emissions by 65 per cent by 2030, in part by producing 80 per cent of its power from renewables by that year. Australia, whose power grid is comparable to Alberta’s, has a 2030 goal to reach 80 per cent renewable power, up from about 30 per cent. Australia’s government is spending billions to make it happen, much like the money Ottawa has offered to push clean power in Canada. Australia’s clean power goal is part of its overall target to cut emissions by 43 per cent. It is about halfway there.

As Alberta and Ottawa continue talks about climate policies, Ms. Smith has said the province needs “some kind of interim steps so that people can see progress.” Alberta insists Ottawa is being inflexible. If Alberta or other provinces can detail their concrete climate plans, with interim targets, Ottawa should be more flexible – but federal-provincial co-operation, as the Supreme Court said last week, should run two ways.

Meanwhile, there is still a big role for Ottawa to drive change. More on this, next week.