This editorial was written and published by the Globe & Mail on December 30, 2023.

In mid-October, climate scientist James Hansen published a short paper about the trajectory of global warming. In four words: it’s getting worse, fast.

Mr. Hansen has been right before. In 1988, his testimony on Capitol Hill in Washington became front-page news: “Global Warming Has Begun, Expert Tells Senate,” read the New York Times headline. We knew then what to do. The Times’ subheadline was: “Sharp Cut in Burning of Fossil Fuels is Urged to battle Shift in Climate.”

Thirty-five years later, the burning of fossil fuels continues to increase, despite various efforts and climate treaties. Our collective goal to limit heating to 1.5 degrees Celsius compared with preindustrial times, enshrined in the 2015 Paris Agreement, is slipping away.

Mr. Hansen’s recent work makes this clear. As anyone following the news would know all too well, the heat this year is unprecedented. September hit 1.76 C. November was 1.72 C – and two days eclipsed 2 C hotter than the planet was before the bonfire of fossil fuels.

The goal to limit heating to 1.5 C is not based on a single month but to see it happen, so soon, is both jarring and a call to action. It was once thought 1.5 C was many years away. There was always still time.

It is a reality of the present, Mr. Hansen concludes, these days in his early 80s and working at Columbia University. His calculations suggest an accelerating warming trend could lead to 2 C of heating by 2040, with the 1.5 C mark officially surpassed in the next few years. “There will be no need,” he wrote, “to ruminate for 20 years about whether the 1.5 C level has been reached.”

In November, a United Nations report said heating could eventually approach 3 C. If you thought this year was bad, imagine the future.

That’s the bad news.

There’s also good news, some at least. The same UN report noted the modest progress made. Greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 were expected to be 16 per cent higher than in 2015, before the Paris deal. The increase is now projected at 3 per cent. Problem is, emissions need to be falling, by at least about 30 per cent by 2030.

The UN report also put odds on the fading hope of success to limit long-term heating to 1.5 C: one-in-seven. One expert called those odds “very, very slim” but, given the circumstances we find ourselves in, one could say they are a reasonable beacon of hope.

Because change is happening. At the end of the annual UN climate meeting in Dubai this month, countries for the first time agreed to transition away from fossil fuels.

We have the tools. Rystad Energy, a Norwegian consultancy, argued in November that an array of technologies led by solar power, already widely deployed, could limit heating to 1.9 C. And renewables are not a charity case. Clean power can outcompete fossil fuels for investment dollars.

The UN climate meeting endorsed the goal of tripling renewable power by 2030 – stepping up from a predicted doubling in the next seven years. Some experts have suggested that solar power, by 2030, could be so cheap as to be free for several hours on sunny days. There are obviously other challenges, such as expanding transmission grids and energy storage, but the potential of a transformation is real.

Rystad and others such as the International Energy Agency see global emissions from fossil fuels peaking around 2025. There’s a new emerging view that emissions in China will also peak soon – and possibly decline starting in 2024.

It’s time for rich countries such as Canada, which have greatly benefited from the use and sale of fossil fuels, to redouble their efforts. It’s sometimes said Canada accounts for less than 2 per cent of global emissions and, thus, our actions are meaningless.

But if the countries of world are a platoon of 50 soldiers, the cowardly abdication of one – especially one of the most able – would contribute directly to a collective failure.

Mr. Hansen continues his life’s work, the science, and the mission to stoke action. In a lengthier study in November, he again warned of the “enormity of consequences” of inaction and pointed to the main two strategies: a carbon tax on fossil fuels and the rapid building of clean energy. Mr. Hansen has not given up hope. “Current political crises,” Mr. Hansen wrote, “present an opportunity for reset, especially if young people can grasp their situation.”

This article was written by Marco Chown Oved and was published in the Toronto Star on December 19, 2023.

While carmakers say hitting Canada’s new zero emission vehicle sales mandates is unrealistic, their track record elsewhere shows that electric vehicle sales have surged past legislated targets once they’re brought in.

The federal government is set to reveal regulations that will require automakers to sell a growing proportion of EVs starting at 20 per cent in 2026 and growing to 100 per cent in 2035, the Star reported on the weekend.

Similar regulations have been in place in Quebec, B.C. and California for the past five years. In those cases, auto manufacturers had no trouble meeting the EV sales targets.

In fact, B.C. met its 2025 target five years early.

“Each time automakers say a target is unachievable, they achieve it — ahead of schedule,” said Joanna Kyriazis, director of public affairs at Clean Energy Canada, a B.C.-based think tank.

Each system is designed differently, but they all operate on a similar premise of issuing credits for sales of zero-emission and hybrid vehicles. Credits can be bought and sold to ensure automakers are in compliance with the law as the proportion of EVs ratchets up.

“Quebec and B.C. ZEV (zero emission vehicle) mandate compliance reports show that all automakers have been able to comply with requirements to date and most are often in overcompliance (i.e. they have more credits than they need),” Kyriazis said.

In fact, the federal government’s original EV sales target was 10 per cent in 2025, a level that will likely be surpassed this year, two years ahead of schedule.

EV sales have been growing rapidly around the world, especially in China, the U.S. and the EU. The International Energy Agency (IEA) found global EV sales grew 25 per cent in 2022 and are set to grow 35 per cent this year.

In Canada, nationwide EV sales reached 12 per cent of all new car sales in the third quarter of this year, helped along by jurisdictions that already had sales mandates.

One in five new cars are electric in Quebec. In B.C., EVs make up nearly a quarter of all new car sales, according to Statistics Canada data.

These numbers indicate that actual EV sales will blow past the government sales targets, said Adam Thorn, director of transportation at the Pembina Institute.

“Canada is following the herd here. We know these targets can be achieved. They are being achieved,” Thorn said.

Brian Kingston, president and CEO of Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers’ Association, pushed back against the imposition of sales mandates, telling the Star the approach of the U.S. federal government is better. There, instead of requiring a proportion of new car sales to be zero emissions, the government sets vehicle emissions standards and ratchets them downward overtime.

Automakers south of the border, however, have been lobbying to weaken those emission regulations, something Daniel Breton, president and CEO of Electric Mobility Canada, said Canadians should know about when listening to the auto industry.

“Some car manufacturers speak from both sides of the mouth, from both sides of the border,” he said.

The emissions standards are layered with other EV policies in the U.S. In addition to California, sixteen states have introduced sales mandates like the ones being introduced in Canada.

Earlier this year, U.S. President Joe Biden announced another suite of incentives to encourage EV uptake, including purchase subsidies, funding for public charging and incentives for heavy-duty vehicles. Canada has similar programs in place, though they are much smaller in scale.

Climate activists point to the EV revolution as an example of a consumer-led climate solution, one that will play a big role in reducing carbon emissions regardless of government intervention.

Extracting, transporting and burning oil to fuel road transportation accounts for almost half of the world’s oil consumption, according to Bloomberg. As the auto fleet electrifies, its share of the overall oil market will drop to about a third of the market in 2040 and a quarter in 2050.

Based on current trends, the rollout of EVs is set to avoid the need for 5 million barrels of oil a day by 2030, according to the IEA. That’s about 5 per cent of world oil production.

The sticker price for EVs, once a deterrent, has been dropping rapidly. The cost of a new EV dropped 22 per cent in the last year, led by aggressive price cuts at Tesla.

Meanwhile, the average price of gas-powered vehicles has shot up by nearly the same amount, hitting $67,800, as Canadians continue to buy larger SUVs, which not only cost more, but have far worse emissions than sedans.

There are now dozens of EV models available for less than the average price of a new car.

“When a person is considering buying a new vehicle, they are clearly looking at the dollars and cents. And there’s some really good research out there that shows in the long term EVs will be cheaper for the consumer,” said Thorn. “There’s less maintenance and obviously the fuel costs are greatly reduced. So the total cost of ownership, if not that initial purchase price, will certainly lead to a more affordable vehicle over time.”

In partnership with Corporate Knights, the Star analyzed how much an average household would save by switching to low-carbon technologies and found an EV would be $2,170 cheaper per year than a gas-powered car.

As a keen observer of the EV industry, Breton said he’s confident that EV sales will far exceed the mandated sales targets.

“It’s a good start,” he said. “But I hope that as we see EV sales go even higher, that the government can crank it up a bit.”

Climate woes halt councillors from backing Ford’s plan

This article was written by Marco Chown Oved and was published in the Toronto Star on December 13, 2023.

Halton Hills, home to one of Ontario’s biggest gas plants, has rejected an expansion project, with local councillors saying concerns about climate change and local air pollution prevented them from being able to support new fossil fuel infrastructure.

The 9-2 vote on Monday evening is the latest setback to Premier Doug Ford’s plan to build new gas plants to meet Ontario’s growing demand for electricity.

For the last year, the province’s electricity system operator and developers have been pitching cities and towns on hosting new plants in an effort to build 1,500 megawatts of gas-fired generation but have only secured 2 local approvals for a total of 550 megawatts.

Halton Hills is the fifth municipality to vote on a new gas plant, breaking the tie between two that approved (Windsor and Napanee) and two that rejected (Thorold and Loyalist) proposals.

“Saying yes to supporting this plant expansion will mean turning our backs on at least 10 years of environmental stewardship and it will also indicate to our residents that climate action is for someone else to worry about,” said Mayor Ann Lawlor.

“Expansion of this plant will demonstrate yet another failure of governments to plan long term for a healthy planet where we all can thrive.”

In 2021, Halton Hills became the first municipality in Canada to commit to net zero emissions by 2030.

This target is more ambitious than virtually any other worldwide. Canada currently seeks to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. The draft Clean Electricity Regulations, if implemented, would mandate net zero electricity nationwide by 2035.

The currently proposed gas plants in Ontario would be contracted until 2040.

In its low-carbon transition strategy, the municipality stated: “the energy system is in transition away from fossil fuels. Halton Hills’ commitment to decarbonize ahead of the curve will enable us to capitalize on new economic opportunities, avoid projected financial losses, and ensure sustainable economic growth.”

Pointing to this report, several councillors said they could not support a new gas plant.

“I’m sure we’re not the only municipality in this situation. We declared a climate emergency in 2019. We’ve got a climate change adaptation plan. We’ve got a corporate energy plan. We’ve got green development standards. We’ve got a retrofit program. And now we’re being asked to endorse a gas plant,” said Coun. Alex Hilson.

In a lengthy back-and-forth with councillors, the province’s Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) made the case that new gas plants were necessary to meet demand in the short term, while transitioning to a net zero grid long term.

“I’m very aware of how confusing the message can be: that we need to rely on fossil fuels to bridge out of fossil fuels,” said the IESO’s chief energy transition officer Chuck Farmer. “This was a hard decision to make but I think it is the only way we can move forward in order to maintain the reliability of the system.”

“If we don’t maintain the reliability and affordability of the system, then we will lose the support for the longer term journey and the investments that are required in order to get to net zero,” he said.

His explanation did not sway Council.

Lawlor was unimpressed with the developer, Atura (a subsidiary of the publicly owned Ontario Power Generation), who made few efforts to work with the municipality on its net zero by 2030 goals, she said.

“Do they really want us to say yes? If they have, why didn’t they give us a great pitch? Because I sure haven’t seen it tonight,” she said.

Other councillors decried how they’re being asked to make decisions that extend far beyond municipal borders, shaping the provincial electricity grid, with global implications in exacerbating climate change.

“We as a council have been put in a difficult situation that we should not be in. The provincial government should be making these decisions, not us,” said Coun. Michael Albano.

Before the Ford government was elected in 2018, electricity planning in Ontario was carried out centrally and imposed on local communities by Queen’s Park.

Capitalizing on local opposition to wind farms, Ford won election in part by promising to give local communities a say on any new energy projects. This effectively gave municipalities a veto, which is now being wielded against gas plants.

This has forced gas plant developers to woo local representatives with financial contributions to “community benefit funds,” something that has never before been offered for electricity generation projects.

Napanee Council voted to support Atura’s 450 megawatt gas plant last month after being offered $1,000 per megawatt per year, a contribution that could add up to $4.8 million over the 12 year contract.

Atura offered Halton Hills $1,100 per megawatt, or between $2 million and $3.5 million over the 12 year contract being sought, depending on the eventual size of the plant.

The very fact that Atura proposed payments had locals questioning the project.

Lawlor said an “unprecedented” number of residents contacted council about the new plant, and more than a dozen of them spoke at council before the vote.

They raised concerns about exacerbating climate change by burning additional fossil fuels and about the health impacts of local air pollution.

“I would feel both betrayed and abandoned should you decide to approve this proposal,” said resident Daniel Poirier, who described how he had bought an electric vehicle and heat pump to fight climate change.

“Why in God’s name did I spend so much effort and many tens of thousands of dollars to reduce my own carbon footprint only to see all that wasted … because of a dirty electricity grid?”

Several councillors said they were swayed by the passionate deputation of 16-year-old high school student, Matthew Tyhurst.

“I’m no councillor, mayor or politician. I’m not even in a position or age to vote yet. All I do is watch and hope that you keep the promises that you yourselves have set forward in a supposed attempt to secure the future of myself and future generations.”

Last fall, the province’s electricity grid operator put out a call for 1,500 megawatts of new gas “peaker” plants to ensure there are no blackouts during periods of peak demand. These peaker plants are only supposed to run about 2 per cent of the time, typically on hot summer afternoons when everyone cranks up their A/C.

But a Star investigation this fall found that Ontario’s fleet of gas peaker plants actually run most of the time. The three plants in the GTA, which produce toxic air pollution in the densest urban area in the country, were fired up more than 19 hours a day last summer, the investigation found.

The Halton Hills plant has doubled how much it runs in the summer, when electricity demand is highest. Five years ago, it ran just over 10 hours a day during the hottest months. Last summer, it ran more than 20 hours a day.

‘‘ Why in God’s name did I spend so much effort and many tens of thousands of dollars to reduce my own carbon footprint only to see all that wasted … because of a dirty electricity grid?

DANIEL POIRIER HALTON HILLS RESIDENT WHO BOUGHT AN EV AND HEAT PUMP TO FIGHT CLIMATE CHANGE

Move touted as way to boost supply, cut wait times for EVs

This article was written by Marco Chown Oved and was published in the Toronto Star on December 18, 2023.

All new cars in Canada will have to be zero emissions by 2035, the government will announce this week when it unveils new vehicle regulations, the Star has learned.

But rather than being a way to force new technology on consumers, it’s being sold as a way to guarantee that people who want EVs will be able to get them more quickly.

The new regulations, called the Electric Vehicle Availability Standard, will shorten the lengthy wait times for EVs that have been dampening consumer demand, said a senior government official whom the Star agreed not to name because they were discussing policy that hadn’t been made public yet.

“This is helping to solve one of the greatest barriers to EVs uptake: that wait times are too long,” they said. “We are making sure that supply is going toward Canadian markets, because one of the issues with EVs is that we’re competing against other markets where the actual EVs are being shipped to.”

Despite reports earlier this year that EVs were languishing on dealer lots, sales numbers show there is a large and growing demand for electric cars and SUVs across Canada and around the world.

One in eight new vehicles sold nationwide is electric or plug-in hybrid, according to Statistics Canada’s records of registrations. In provinces that already have regulations requiring dealers to sell a certain proportion of EVs, sales are far higher.

One in five new cars are electric in Quebec. In B.C., EVs make up nearly a quarter of all new car sales.

“By doing this nationally, we will make sure supply is available and that consumers in all provinces are going to get quicker access to the vehicles,” the official said.

In 2022, the Star published an investigation that found wait times for EVs were much longer in Toronto than elsewhere in Canada, and that dealers were pushing potential buyers toward gas-powered vehicles, which had shorter waitlists.

Anecdotal evidence suggests the situation hasn’t improved much in the meantime, with people waiting a year or more to receive delivery of a new electric vehicle.

The new regulations will require zero emissions vehicles (ZEVs), which include battery electric, hydrogen and plug-in electric vehicles, to make up 20 per cent of all new car sales in 2026, 60 per cent in 2030 and 100 per cent in 2035, the official said.

Companies can receive credits toward their ZEV sales quotas by selling EVs now, before the regulations come into effect in 2026, and by building public fast chargers, to make it easier for consumers to recharge their vehicles on the go.

This will complement the 84,500 chargers the federal government has committed to building by 2029, the official said.

While auto manufacturers have been investing tens of billions of dollars in transforming their production lines to make EVs, including building three new major plants in Ontario, they have also been pushing back against the regulations ever since they were released in draft form last year.

“What the mandate does is it forces a ratio of EV sales that is completely unrealistic given the current affordability challenges facing Canadians and the charging infrastructure gap,” said Brian Kingston, president and CEO of Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers’ Association. “And that’s not feasible.”

“Rather than dictate which technologies have to be used, we should use the existing emissions regulations which Canada has aligned with the United States and make them increasingly stringent. And then you leave it up to the market and automakers to innovate, to reach those emissions reductions objectives,” Kingston said. “That’s the best approach.”

Industry analysts, however, say the status quo policies aren’t working. Despite overtures from the automotive industry of a commitment to zero emissions, carbon emissions from the transportation sector — which is largely cars and trucks — are on the rise.

Canadians drive the least fuel-efficient cars in the world, and they’ll continue to do so until they’re offered affordable zero emissions vehicles, said Joanna Kyriazis, Director of Public Affairs at Clean Energy Canada, a B.C.-based think tank.

“This will force automakers to make good on their promises to deliver more affordable models to meet their zero emission sales targets,” she said.

China, South Korea and the United Kingdom, as well as 17 U.S. states all have EV sales mandates, and these are where all the limited supply of EVs are being sent as soon as they roll off the line, she said.

“As a growing number of places put sales mandates in place, Canadians risk missing out,” she said.

It’s not just about reducing emissions, it’s also about making life more affordable.

“EVs are one of the best ways for Canadians to save on their energy bills,” she said, citing a recent analysis showing EVs are so much cheaper to charge than a gas car is to fill up, owners would end up saving more than $33,000 over the course of 10 years.

Even in cases where the electric option costs more to buy, the EV will still work out cheaper overall, the report found. Most EV models broke even with their gas equivalents in under a year.

This article was written by Michael J. Coren and was published in the Washington Post on December 14, 2023.

Your decision to buy that heat pump or induction stove might feel like it came after much deliberation and research. You might want to thank your friends and family.

Your trusted inner circle is one of the most potent and overlooked weapons to stave off the worst of climate change. Our individual actions appear small, but they act as billboards for others looking for cues on what to do in their own lives. These social comparisons can add up.

The most powerful thing that gets people and politicians to support biking? Seeing other people ride their bikes, says Michael Brownstein, an associate professor of philosophy at the City University of New York. “It’s a shift of perspective to see yourself as a member of the community, as an entrepreneur of norms,” says Brownstein, who studies societal change.

While policy, regulation and clean technology are essential to reduce emissions, they aren’t sufficient. Humans evolved, says Brownstein, to pay incredibly close attention to what others are thinking and doing as models for their own behavior.

If you’re interested in helping curb global warming, that means becoming a mirror for others to see themselves.

The surprisingly simple way to convince people to go green© Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Facts vs. deeds

Scientists have observed again and again that what we do and don’t do are profoundly influenced by how others act.

Researchers in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences this March examined data from 430 individual studies to see what factors influenced people’s environment-related behaviors, from recycling to switching modes of transportation.

Providing data or facts ranked last, persuading an average of 3.5 percent of people to change their behavior compared to a control group. Setting personal goals and appeals to act more sustainably fared better, but were still middling performers. Financial incentives such as subsidies or savings performed relatively well, persuading about 12 percent.

But leading the pack were what scientists called “social comparisons” — people’s ability to observe the behavior of others and compare it with their own.

This persuaded more than 14 percent of people to change their behavior in experiments from around the world. Those comparisons could be as passive as observing a neighbor’s solar panels or receiving notices about household energy use.

An HVAC technician installs electric heat pumps at a home in Windham, Maine.© Tristan Spinski/For The Washington Post

It’s about the messenger

There’s an assumption that good data speaks for itself. In reality, it usually whispers. Take vaccines. About 21 percent of eligible Americans say they still haven’t gotten a coronavirus shot. “Maybe we underinvested in behavioral research,” Francis Collins, then leading the National Institutes of Health, said to “NewsHour” on PBS in 2021. “I never imagined a year ago, when those vaccines were just proving to be fantastically safe and effective, that we would still have 60 million people who had not taken advantage of them.”

Sadly, the climate issue is not much different. In 1979, behavioral scientists were invited to share the table with geophysical scientists as the U.S. government began planning a response to global warming, says Baruch Fischhoff, a Carnegie Mellon University social scientist who has worked with multiple government agencies. They helped sketch an ambitious program to inform public messaging, policies and future research. But as funding dried up during the Reagan administration, behavioral science fell off the agenda.

“We basically were no longer at the table for the next quarter-century,” says Fischhoff. “The natural scientists trusted their story would tell [itself]. … We blew it.”

A subsequent misinformation campaign led by fossil fuel companies skewed the public’s perception of climate risks, while programs failed to live up to their potential. Weatherization efforts, even free ones, often faltered because people didn’t want strangers entering their homes, the journal Nature reports. Similarly, owners of office buildings refused to install energy-saving technology because they didn’t want to take on debt to pay for it or fill out extra paperwork, even if doing so would save money in the long run, a second Nature study found in 2016.

Scientists are trying to rectify the situation now. Last year, the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change explicitly encouraged governments pushing climate change efforts to consider behavioral, social and cultural factors for the first time.

Teslas leave the factory in Fremont, Calif.© Stephen Lam/Reuters

What sells for the climate

Today, many people remain hesitant to make the switch to cleaner tech. Nearly half of U.S. adults say they prefer to own a gas-powered car or truck, and only 19 percent prefer an all-electric vehicle, according to a July Washington Post-University of Maryland poll. The number of people who say they are considering buying EVs and home solar panels in 2023 is lower than in 2021, despite rising rates of adoption, a recent survey of public attitudes by the conservation nonprofit Rare found.

These are warning lights blinking for the future of electrification, argues Erik Thulin, a behavioral scientist and co-author of the Rare research now under peer review. “It’s certainly not going up in the way we had hoped,” he says. “Interest is declining.”

The study found that fewer people perceived personal benefits from these technologies or felt confident they could incorporate them into their lives. Thulin says turning around these perceptions will be essential to persuade most of the public to jettison inefficient or fossil-fuel-driven technology.

For now, unfortunately, we just don’t know what’s going on in people’s heads, says Fischhoff. Few rigorous studies have been done on why people change their climate behaviors. “We don’t know how people are making these decisions,” he says.

Solar panels atop homes in Santa Clarita, Calif.© Mario Tama/Getty Images

How your life influences others

We do know the climate-related actions of trusted friends, relatives and neighbors can have a profound effect on the people around them.

Solar panels are a classic example. In a 2021 paper published in Nature, researchers found the most important factor that determined whether someone installed panels on their roof wasn’t subsidies, geography or policy. It was whether their neighbor had them. A single solar rooftop project increases installations by nearly 50 percent within a half-mile radius, a second study found.

Solar panels, in other words, are contagious.

Various clean technologies share this characteristic, and many of them are cheaper than their fossil-fuel counterparts over a lifetime. The primary barrier in getting a lot of people to make the leap is finding enough of those trusted others to show the way. Organizations are trying to amplify this climate influence.

Solarize Campaigns, a grass-roots effort in Oregon that has become a blueprint in more than two dozen states, signs up “ambassadors” to show neighbors how to go solar. The ambassadors organize barbecues where people can watch live solar panel installations or share years of low electricity bills to entice more customers. In Connecticut, one such campaign tripled solar installations while lowering average costs by 20 percent through bulk discounts and prescreened contractors, a case study published by Yale University found. People can join existing campaigns or start their own.

Similarly, the nonprofit Acterra recruits EV and e-bike owners in the Bay Area to share their experiences, offering “ride and drive” events. These often give people their first taste of such technologies, and it comes from a member of their community who can answer questions and clear some of the hurdles to adoption.

Early adopters, roughly 15 to 20 percent of the population, have driven record sales of clean technologies in recent years. It’s a mistake to assume this growth is inevitable. The mainstream market, people who are far less tolerant of the uncertainty and inconveniences of new products, will remain on the sidelines unless these concerns are addressed.

Persuading them will take a different approach, says Brooke Betts, a former marketing executive who now runs Rare’s climate campaigns. “What worked for early adopters,” says Betts, “won’t work for later ones.”

The most persuasive argument might be you.

Ford government puts out call for clean power projects

This article was written by Marco Chown Oved and was published in the Toronto Star on December 12, 2023.

After a five-and-a-half-year hiatus, Ontario is getting back into the renewable energy game.

Once the Canadian leader in solar and wind, the province halted construction — and cancelled partially built projects — when Doug Ford was elected premier in 2018, railing against renewables for being expensive and driving up hydro bills.

Since then, Ontario’s clean energy has become increasingly carbon intensive, dropping from 94 per cent non-emitting to 89 per cent, and eroding the province’s competitive advantage in attracting businesses looking for low carbon electricity.

Renewable energy has also gotten cheaper, with solar now the cheapest form of energy in history. On Monday, Energy Minister Todd Smith announced Ontario would end the backslide, putting out a call for 2,000 megawatts of non-emitting generation, including wind, solar, hydro and bioenergy.

That’s approximately five per cent of all electricity generation in the province.

“Many communities have already reached out to me to share their interest in hosting new energy projects,” said Smith at a speech at the Empire Club in Toronto.

“(They) can start working with proponents today to ensure that projects can be built that are going to bring new opportunities, they’re going to bring new jobs to their communities, and they’re going to contribute to the province’s electricity grid at the same time.”

Smith isn’t stopping there, saying this is just the first round of procurement and an additional 3,000 megawatts would follow in what he called “a regular cadence” of new generation.

The Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) says these non-emitting generation sources will allow the province to reduce output from natural gas plants with an eye to eliminating emissions from the electricity grid — an essential precursor to eliminating carbon emissions and mitigating climate change.

“The procurement of additional renewables is definitely overdue,” said Evan Pivnick, clean energy program manager at Clean Energy Canada. “With the cost reductions we’ve seen in renewables, there’s never been a time when the business case for these stands up more so than today.”

The first projects will be announced next year and will come online before the end of the decade. They will include re-contracting of existing renewable generation as well as the construction of new projects.

The shift to renewable generation represents a big pivot for the province, which has focused on new nuclear reactors and gas plants since Ford came to office. With growing demand for electricity, the gas plants are meant to ensure no blackouts during peak demand periods over the coming years.

After two decades of flat electricity demand, the IESO says Ontario needs more electricity to meet a growing population and the new industries, including EV production and green steel, being set up in the province.

While the province has had trouble convincing towns to host the plants, the IESO is confident enough it will secure enough new gas that it can now turn its attention to longer term renewables to build a net zero grid for the future.

“With new supply on track to meet demand mid-decade, we are now addressing energy needs going into the 2030s and beyond,” said IESO CEO Lesley Gallinger. “The next round of procurements will be a perfect complement to our storage fleet — generating energy to charge recently procured batteries that can be deployed when needed to meet system needs.”

Grid scale batteries are being deployed across the province and the world because they unlock much of the potential of renewables that had previously been wasted. Since the wind doesn’t always blow and the sun doesn’t always shine, renewable energy was unable to guarantee generation at any given time.

Batteries ensure that renewable electricity can be captured and stored until it’s needed.

At Monday’s speech, Smith was quick to contrast this new round of renewable energy from the previous build out that took place under Liberal governments.

“When we talk about this much renewables, many minds are immediately going to turn to the absolute fiasco that was the Liberal’s Green Energy Act … when wind and solar projects were forced on unwilling host communities,” he said.

Smith highlighted how the Progressive Conservative approach of competitive procurement has already resulted in recontracting existing generation at 30 per cent below what was being paid before. The IESO estimates the next round of wind contracts will go for less than half of what the province paid in the mid 2000s.

While Smith is embracing renewable energy, he emphasized that gas is still needed for the foreseeable future.

“We need to face reality. Sometimes the sun doesn’t shine and sometimes the wind doesn’t blow, which is why natural gas is still needed,” he said.

Several studies have contested this, showing that a combination of renewables, batteries and conservation measures can alleviate the need for any new gas plants.

‘‘ Many communities have already reached out to me to share their interest in hosting new energy projects.

ENERGY MINISTER TODD SMITH

Exclusive: Simon Stiell says leaders must ‘stop dawdling’ and act before crucial summit in Dubai

This article was written by Fiona Harvey and was published in The Guardian on November 24, 2023.

The natural world is caught in a vicious cycle – extreme weather is destroying natural habitats and wildlife, yet these are crucial to fighting the climate crisis

This article was written by Phoebe Weston and was published in The Guardian on November 29, 2023.

Speaking in the lead up to Cop28 in Dubai, Christiana Figueres said she has lost faith in oil companies

This article was written by Ajit Naranjan and was published in The Guardian on November 30, 2023.